视频文本

步入2023年第二季度，今年以来美国股市的黯淡前景一直被受市场关注。受估值上涨推动，市盈率提高，标普500指数上涨约6.5个百分点。然而，仅有20只个股支撑此次涨幅的近90%。

美国上月就业新增23.6万，低于2月，但这一放缓不足以使美国央行停止再次加息。投资者加息预期明显，远期市场目前定价显示，下个月美联储会议加息可能性接近75%。伴随就业增长边际减弱，近期经济数据显示工资增长有放缓迹象，这将长期有利于抑制通胀。

值得关注的是，美国企业正面临新冠疫情以来最严重的利润下滑，一方面高通胀削减利润率，另一方面潜在的经济衰退担忧抑制了市场需求。根据FactSet研究公司的估计，标普500指数公司一季度盈利预计将比去年同期下降6.8%。

Video Transcript

As we head into the second quarter of 2023, the challenges of the US equity market this year so far have been notable. The S&P 500 is up about 6.5%, largely driven by valuation expansions, as PE ratios climbed higher. Still, just 20 stocks have accounted for almost 90 percent of this raise.

The US economy added 236,000 new jobs last month (March), fewer than in February but not enough of a slowdown to discourage the central bank from making another rate increase. Investors look towards the possibility of more interest increases as futures markets are now pricing an almost 75 percent chance of an interest rate increase at next month’s meeting. While job growth marginally declined, the recent data also included signs of slowing wage growth, which should help bring down inflation over time.

It must be noted that corporate America is facing its sharpest drop in profits since the early stages of Covid, as high inflation squeezes margins and fears of an impending recession hold back demand. Companies on the S&P 500 index are expected to report a 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter earnings compared with the same period last year, according to estimates from FactSet.